As 2026 Approaches, the Ukraine-Russia War Grinds On: The December 28th Strikes and the Elusive Quest for Peace

KYIV — As the world prepares to ring in 2026, the war in Ukraine is entering its fourth calendar year with little sign of resolution. What began in February 2022 as a "special military operation" intended by the Kremlin to last a matter of weeks has calcified into the defining geopolitical attrition conflict of the era. As winter deepens, both sides remain locked in a brutal stalemate along a thousand-kilometer front, a reality punctuated by a massive aerial assault just days after Christmas.

The December 28th Assault: A Winter Grimness

The fragile hope for a holiday lull was shattered in the early hours of December 28, 2025. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia launched one of its largest combined aerial attacks of the second half of the year.

The assault involved a coordinated wave of approximately 85 Shahed-type loitering munitions launched from multiple axes, followed by a salvo of Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles targeted specifically at critical energy infrastructure in the central and eastern regions. While Ukrainian air defenses, bolstered by Western-supplied systems, reported intercepting nearly 70% of the incoming threats, the projectiles that got through caused significant damage.

Emergency services reported that a major thermal power plant outside Kharkiv was struck, plunging huge swaths of the city into darkness amidst freezing temperatures. Further strikes were reported in the Dnipro and Odesa regions, damaging substations and killing at least 14 civilians in residential areas hit by debris or missed targeting. The December 28th attack served as a stark reminder of Russia's continued strategy to weaponize winter, attempting to break Ukrainian morale by dismantling the civil infrastructure necessary for survival.

Irreconcilable Motives

As the conflict nears the four-year mark, the strategic motivations driving both combatants remain diametrically opposed, fueling the endless churn of the meat-grinder across the Donbas and southern steppes.

The Kremlin's Calculation: Russia’s motive remains rooted in President Vladimir Putin’s existential view of Russian security and historical legacy. The Kremlin views a sovereign, Western-aligned Ukraine as an unacceptable threat to Russia's borders and its status as a great power. Russia continues to demand the "demilitarization" of Ukraine and legal neutrality—meaning a permanent bar on NATO membership.

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Crucially, Russia currently insists on the recognition of "new territorial realities." This means they demand Kyiv formally cede sovereignty over the five regions Russia claims to have annexed: Crimea (2014), and Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson (2022)—even though Russian forces do not fully control all of these territories on the ground.

Kyiv’s Existential Fight: For Ukraine, the motive is simple survival. The war is viewed not as a territorial dispute, but as a war of independence and a defense against genocide. Ukraine’s strategic goal remains the full restoration of its internationally recognized 1991 borders, which includes the recapture of the Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula.

Furthermore, Kyiv seeks tangible security guarantees that go beyond the assurances of the past. Having seen the Budapest Memorandum and the Minsk agreements fail to prevent invasion, Ukraine argues that only membership in NATO, or a similarly binding mutual defense pact with Western powers, can secure a lasting peace.

Why Peace Remains Impossible

The reason peace has not been possible, and why negotiations remain non-existent as 2025 closes, is that the intersection of these demands forms a null set. There is currently no overlapping zone of agreement.

The fundamental obstacle is territorial. No Ukrainian leader could survive politically if they agreed to cede 20% of the country's landmass after the immense sacrifices made by the population. Conversely, Vladimir Putin has staked his entire political legitimacy on this war; withdrawing without securing the annexed territories would be viewed domestically as a catastrophic defeat, potentially threatening his regime.

Furthermore, a profound "trust deficit" makes any ceasefire appear dangerous.⁶ Ukrainian officials publicly argue that any pause in fighting would merely be used by Russia to rearm, refit its depleted units, and launch a new offensive at a later date. Russia, meanwhile, argues that the West is using Ukraine as a proxy to weaken Russia and that Western diplomatic overtures are disingenuous.

As 2026 dawns, both sides still believe that they can improve their negotiating position through force of arms. As long as the belief persists that the battlefield offers a better outcome than the negotiating table, the artillery duels and missile strikes that defined December 28th will continue to define the future of Eastern Europe.